Analysts see no big gains in lifting of trade sanctions
By Nick Jonson
From Aerospace Daily, June 24, 2003 (Vol. 206, No. 60)
The U.S. State Department's June 20 notice announcing the formal lifting
the trade sanctions against India and Pakistan may result in an occasional
sale for U.S. defense contractors, according to some foreign policy observers.
But it remains unclear whether large-scale defense trade between the countries
would result.
"This is not really a change in policy," said Jay Greer, spokesman for
the State Department's Bureau of Political-Military Affairs. "The thought
was to put out this announcement to make sure everybody knew where we stood.
It was just meant to clarify some things."
As indicated in the June 20 notice in the Federal Register (DAILY, June
23), the real policy shift came in September 2001 when the president, following
the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, waived the trade sanctions that had been
placed on India and Pakistan following their testing of nuclear weapons
in 1998, Greer said.
The June 20 announcement stated what had become U.S. policy, namely that
requests to export defense articles and services to India and Pakistan would
be considered on a case-by-case basis, he said. Calls and e-mails to the
Indian and Pakistani embassies in Washington were not returned by press
time.
Joel Johnson, vice president of international affairs for the Aerospace
Industries Association in Washington, agreed that the announcement represented
no real change in policy. Trade between the countries is not expected to
change dramatically, he said.
"DOD and State will continue, for reasons relating to foreign policy
and regional balance, to be extremely cautious in approving export license
requests," he said. "I don't foresee any sudden breakthrough in trade relations
between the countries."
Teresita Schaffer, a South Asia expert at the Center for Strategic and
International Studies in Washington, said the "new" policy may result in
an occasional sale for U.S. defense contractors, citing speculation that
the Bush Administration may agree to a sale of F-16s to Pakistan.
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Frederick Shaheen |
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Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, who will travel to Washington this
week for talks with President Bush, "has been fanning that speculation,"
Schaffer said.
But Frederick Shaheen, a lawyer
specializing in defense export law with the law firm Greenberg Traurig,
said the announcement represents a real change in how the State Department
will review export license requests to India and Pakistan.
Shaheen said the export licensing policy for India and Pakistan changed
following the terrorist attacks, but the actual practice of granting license
remained the same and few licenses were granted.
The war in Afghanistan and the need to obtain the support of the Pakistani
government marked "a seminal point" in the policy shift, Shaheen said. The
June 20 announcement, he said, was a signal sent from top officials at the
State Department to those that review the export license requests that "this
is the policy."
Shaheen said it remains unclear whether the announcement will result
in more export license approvals for India and Pakistan.
"I think they mean it, but the proof will be in the pudding," he said.
Article reposted with permission, as it appeared in the Aerospace
Daily, Tuesday, June 24, 2003, Vol. 206, No. 60. Copyright 2003 McGraw-Hill,
Inc.
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