Projected Naturalization Processing Time and the Election

United States Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) reduced the backlog for naturalization applications
following the 2007 surge in filings. It seems as though USCIS met its goal of decreasing naturalization processing times from an average of 16-18 months to an average of 10-12 months by the end of September. Even with these improvements, USCIS intends to takes steps to further streamline the naturalization process. For example, USCIS implemented an aggressive hiring strategy and expanded work hours for adjudication officers. According to Jonathan Scharfen, acting USCIS director, the Service’s goal is to process “all naturalization applications within five months by this time next year.” GT attorneys are pleased to see processing already within the five month time frame for many of our clients.

The large backlog in naturalization processing was caused, in part, by a surge in filing during Fiscal Year 2007, which was nearly double the normal annual volume. The surge can be partially attributed to a fee increase that was implemented on July 30, 2007. However, historically, there has often been increases in naturalization during election years. This is due, in part, to legal permanent residents’ desire to vote in the upcoming presidential elections. Indeed, studies show that recently naturalized voters have higher voter
participations rates than native-born voters. Additionally, many politicians push for an increase in naturalizations because they believe that by increasing the number of potential voters they will increase their chances for victory. Increasing naturalizations could be an effective strategy, especially for
Democrats, because of the tendency for new citizens to vote for the Democratic Party. For example, after the 1996 surge in naturalization, Bill Clinton won 70% of the Latino vote, compared to Bob Dole’s 21%. With polls
showing a close race between Obama and McCain, potential voters whose naturalization applications are currently pending could have a significant impact on the 2008 elections. This is especially true given that many of the applications mired down in naturalization backlog reside in swing states like Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. While processing times have decreased, unfortunately, due to the long delays, many resident aliens that were in the system were not sworn in time to meet the voter registration deadlines.
Only time will tell how many naturalizations were completed, and what impact they will have on the upcoming elections.

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